Projection: SNP majority of 21, some relief for Labour, Tories stall

BMG 18 April-01

BMG 18 April 2016

This week we see a new entrant to Scottish Parliament polling, BMG Research. With two weeks still to go, BMG show the SNP on 51% of constituency voting intention, to Labour’s 21% and the Tories’ 16%. On the regional lists, the SNP slip to 45%, Labour to 20%, and the Tories stick on 16%.

On BMG’s’ figures, the SNP look set to win 70 out of 73 constituency seats. While the Tories lose Galloway and West Dumfries, and Ayr, hang onto Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire, and gain Eastwood from Labour. The Lib Dems lose Liam McArthur in Orkney, but retain Tavish Scott in Shetland.

The regional list throws up a few results that look somewhat anomalous: it seems inconceivable that Labour wins three seats in the Highlands and only two in Central Scotland. Labour likely wouldn’t regard a tally of 23 seats as being too bad, though certainly on the lower end of that party’s hopes. The Tories’ hopes of becoming the Scottish Parliament’s main opposition would be dashed according to BMG, modestly padding their seat total by three. On BMG’s numbers, the 6th of May will be a disappointing one for Labour’s Ken Macintosh, Elaine Smith, and Cara Hilton.
The Greens pick up two in Glasgow, as well as one each in a further five regions, bringing their total to seven. The Lib Dems lose their seat in the North East and gain one in Lothians, bringing their total to four. In common with most other pollsters, BMG shows UKIP picking up a seat in the Highlands and Islands, as well as a seat in Central Scotland. It’s difficult to gauge RISE support on the back of BMG’s polling, as they’re not included in the prompt – however support for “others” appears to be negligible.

On these numbers, Labour only loses Dumfriesshire by a whisker (0.14%) – with their next most promising hopes being Cowdenbeath, East Lothian, and Dunfermline.

SNP makes the case for scrapping tax-free personal allowance and imposing a “Flat Tax”

Sturgeon ParliamentLabour (and the Liberal Democrats) have called the SNP’s bluff, by proposing a 1% tax increase in order to offset cuts to public services. Surely, the left-wing SNP warmly embraces slightly higher income taxes over austerity? It seems not, and the SNP’s spin machine has gone into overdrive, inventing new meanings for words, which hitherto had a commonly understood meaning.

In order to defend themselves against the claim that the SNP, while speaking the language of Syriza, bear a far closer resemblance to the Tories or New Labour when it comes to taxation; the SNP’s spin doctors (another trait they share in common with New Labour) have invented a new definition of “progressive”. Any tax expert will tell you that a progressive tax is one in which the effective rate increases with the value of the base. Income tax is progressive in that respect, because higher earners pay a higher proportion of their income in tax than lower earners; Council Tax, by contrast, is regressive to its base (property values) because the effective tax rate is lower for higher value properties. Simple stuff.

However, in response to Scottish Labour’s proposals to increase the Scottish Rate of Income Tax (SRIT) by 1% in every band, the SNP invented a novel definition of progressivity. The SNP described Labour’s proposals as “regressive” because the relative increase in the proportion of higher earners’ income tax is smaller than the relative increase in lower earners’ tax. In other words, the proportion of the proportion of income.

The SNP’s cyber-warriors went into overdrive, lovingly embracing this new definition of progressivity, seemingly without the slightest clue about what they were actually saying. For example, the first £11,000 of income is tax-free. A certain amount of tax-free income is a feature in almost every tax system and is, surely, progressive? Well, no longer, according to the SNP. Because we pay no tax on the first £11,000, the first penny of income tax is an infinitely higher burden than zero.


As can be seen on the above graph, the rate at which the tax burden increases (green line) is significantly higher at the lower end of income tax, because the tax-free personal allowance represents a much larger share of total income. Because of the withdrawal of the personal allowance above £100,000, the rate at which the tax burden increases in the top brackets approaches zero (the only constant being the weekly National Insurance threshold of £112). Under the SNP’s new definition of progressivity, the personal allowance is regressive, and presumably therefore, has to go.

By contrast, taxing us on every penny we earn at a single rate – a flat tax, without any personal allowance – would be much less regressive under the SNP’s conception of progressivity.

The SNP’s measure of progressivity is what’s called a derivative, and by the SNP’s new definition of progressivity, it’s not just Labour’s proposals that are regressive, but also the whole of income tax itself! In their attempts to spin Labour’s proposals as regressive (which I hope is clear by now, they are not) the SNP’s spin doctors and their online infantry have been making the case for scrapping the personal allowance and imposing a flat tax. And if you believe that’s “progressive” then you really will believe anything.

 

Projection: SNP majority of 13; Labour on 26

April 6 TNS Scottish ParliamentSNP: 71 (+2)
Labour: 26 (-11)
Conservative: 19 (+4)
Lib Dem: 5 (-)
Green: 7 (+5)
UKIP: 1 (+1)

TNS 6 April 2016

Last week’s TNS poll will bring some relief to Scottish Labour. Cutbot’s UNS based projector forecasts a respectable (relative to expectations) seat tally of 28 for Labour, my own projection based on regional breakdowns forecasts 26 seats for Labour.

On TNS’ figures, the SNP look set to win 67 out of 73 constituency seats, with Labour retaining only Dumfriesshire. While the Tories lose Galloway and West Dumfries, and Ayr, they make a surprising gain by unseating Roseanna Cunningham in Perthshire South and Kinross-shire. Perhaps even more surprisingly, however – despite losing Liam McArthur in Orkney, the Lib Dems re-take both North East Fife AND Dunfermline! If that actually happens, I’ll eat Paddy Ashdown’s hat.

The regional list picture is a little bit more muddled, with Labour polling abysmally in the Highlands and Islands, and North East, but actually outpolling the SNP, 43% to 41%, in Glasgow. If these numbers are reflect in votes cast next month, then the Highlands and Islands will become the first ever region to have no Labour MSPs whatsoever. In Glasgow, Labour picks up an impressive six regional list seats, with a further five in Central and West – all very much at the very top-end of expectations. Labour drops to two seats in Mid Scotland and Fife, North East, and Lothians –  making Sarah Boyack Labour’s highest profile casualty.
Having dominated the constituencies in most regions, and with less impressive vote shares in the two regions where their constituency hegemony is fettered, the SNP only picks up four regional list seats, bringing their total seat tally to 71.

While the Tories could expect no fewer than eleven new faces among their group, on these numbers, Adam Tomkins won’t be one of them. UKIP picks up a single seat in the North East, with their Scottish Leader David Coburn missing out on a seat in the Highlands and Islands.

The Greens are polling strongly in the Lothians, as you would expect, easily picking up two seats in the region. On TNS’ numbers the Greens could also expect two seats in the Highlands and Mid Scotland and Fife. Though instinctively unlikely in reality, strong numbers in Mid Scotland and Fife have featured very frequently in the polls in the run up to this election – I’m starting to think there might be something in it.

There are some close contests. On the basis of these numbers, Labour’s best chances of retaining seats (other than Dumfriesshire) are Glasgow Provan, Rutherglen, and East Lothian. The Tories only take Perthshire South by a whisker, while losing Ayr and Galloway by even smaller margins. The Lib Dems, only scrape through in each of the three seats they’re forecast to win.

Perhaps the most interesting figures are in the SNP’s vote shares, which I’ll go into in some more detail next time.