Projection: SNP majority of 13, big gains for Greens and UKIP

MAR 1 survation

SNP: 71 (+2)
Labour: 22 (-15)
Conservative: 16 (+1)
Lib Dem: 5 (-)
Green: 9 (+7)
UKIP: 6 (+4)

Survation 1 March 2016

Apologies for the delay in crunching the numbers on this – I was on holiday!

Last week’s Survation poll stands in some contrast to the TNS poll published on the same day, reporting a modest seat-gain for the SNP, although another disaster for Scottish Labour.

On Survation’s figures, the SNP look set to win 67 out of 73 constituency seats, leaving Labour with all but one of their constituencies – Dumfriesshire. The SNP also poach Liam McArthur’s seat in Orkney. By contrast, the Tories retain their current crop of constituencies, and snatch Eastwood from Labour’s Ken MacIntosh too.

Central Scotland sees the seven regional list seats divided up between Labour and the SNP, with the SNP taking the final two seats in the region, although Conservatives, UKIP, and the Liberal Democrats are all competitive for the final seat here.

The Conservatives poll strongly in the South of Scotland, though their strong performance in constituencies here leaves them with no regional seats. The Tories lose a regional seat each in Central Scotland, and Mid Scotland and Fife, while gaining a seat in both Highlands and Islands and North East Scotland.

The Greens chalk up impressive gains, gaining an extra seat in Glasgow, as well as wining two in both Mid Scotland and Fife and South of Scotland. Similarly, the Lib Dems win not one but two seats in the Lothians, a reflection, perhaps, of the party’s former strength in Edinburgh. UKIP are the other big gainers, winning six seats, and in the case of South of Scotland and Highlands and Islands winning them comfortably.

The SNP’s failure to make significant gains in South of Scotland would see Justice Minister Paul Wheelhouse, Environment Minister Aileen McLeod, and high-profile MSP Joan McAlpine out of a job. North East MSP Christian Allard would also fail to be returned in the North East, while former MSP Shirley-Anne Somerville is once again left-out of the Scottish Parliament.*

While a near-clean sweep of constituencies appears to be on the cards, the data appear to show some competitive three-way races in Edinburgh Central, Southern, and Western, as well as Eastwood. Tactical voting may well produce surprise results in these seats. Labour also remains competitive in East Lothian.

 *Correction: it has subsequently been drawn to my attention that SAS is standing in Dunfermline, which would mean that she would, in fact, return to Holyrood.