Projection: SNP majority of 31, Willie Rennie to lose seat

mar 1 tns

SNP: 80
Labour: 28
Conservative: 13
Lib Dem: 5
Green: 3

TNS 1 March 2014

This week’s TNS poll brings great cause for cheer for the SNP, reaching new heights in both constituency and regional voting intention – polling at 60% and 55% respectively. Labour are on 21% by both measures, which at least brings the comfort that they don’t appear to be declining any further (small comforts, eh?)

On the latest figures, I’m projecting SNP on 80 seats, winning a thumping majority of 31. 28 seats for Labour is at the higher end of recent expectations of the party’s performance. The Greens gain a second seat in the Lothians, and the Lib Dems remain static. Perhaps, most surprisingly, the much-touted Conservative surge is still yet to materialise – with a projected 13 seats, a 2 seat decline on 2011.

Once again, the South of Scotland provides some of the most interesting data, with Tory support there plummeting. Perhaps by broadening the Tories appeal to newer voters, Ruth Davidson is alienating some of the more traditional support in Tory seats.

The Tories are projected to lose all of their seats in the South of Scotland, but gain Eastwood from Labour. The Lib Dems retain Shetland, but lose Orkney, and are compensated with a seat on the Highlands and Islands list. On the basis of the TNS poll, it’s a constituency wipeout for Labour.

On a regional basis, Labour is projected to win 28 seats. Central Scotland is projected to be Labour’s strongest performance, winning 5 seats, with 4 in Glasgow and West. While the Liberal Democrats remain static on 5, their leader Willie Rennie is forecast to lose his seat in Mid-Scotland and Fife. the Lib Dems are projected to pick up regional seats in Glasgow, Central, and Highlands and Islands – meaning returns for former MSPs Robert Brown and Jamie Stone. Perhaps most astonishingly, the SNP wins FOUR regional list seats in the North East, in addition to sweeping all 10 constituencies. 

The resurgence of smaller parties projected by the previous Survation poll isn’t borne out by TNS, with the Greens forecast to pick up only one more seat in the Lothians.