#sp16

Projection: SNP majority of 13; Labour on 26

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April 6 TNS Scottish ParliamentSNP: 71 (+2)
Labour: 26 (-11)
Conservative: 19 (+4)
Lib Dem: 5 (-)
Green: 7 (+5)
UKIP: 1 (+1)

TNS 6 April 2016

Last week’s TNS poll will bring some relief to Scottish Labour. Cutbot’s UNS based projector forecasts a respectable (relative to expectations) seat tally of 28 for Labour, my own projection based on regional breakdowns forecasts 26 seats for Labour.

On TNS’ figures, the SNP look set to win 67 out of 73 constituency seats, with Labour retaining only Dumfriesshire. While the Tories lose Galloway and West Dumfries, and Ayr, they make a surprising gain by unseating Roseanna Cunningham in Perthshire South and Kinross-shire. Perhaps even more surprisingly, however – despite losing Liam McArthur in Orkney, the Lib Dems re-take both North East Fife AND Dunfermline! If that actually happens, I’ll eat Paddy Ashdown’s hat.

The regional list picture is a little bit more muddled, with Labour polling abysmally in the Highlands and Islands, and North East, but actually outpolling the SNP, 43% to 41%, in Glasgow. If these numbers are reflect in votes cast next month, then the Highlands and Islands will become the first ever region to have no Labour MSPs whatsoever. In Glasgow, Labour picks up an impressive six regional list seats, with a further five in Central and West – all very much at the very top-end of expectations. Labour drops to two seats in Mid Scotland and Fife, North East, and Lothians –  making Sarah Boyack Labour’s highest profile casualty.
Having dominated the constituencies in most regions, and with less impressive vote shares in the two regions where their constituency hegemony is fettered, the SNP only picks up four regional list seats, bringing their total seat tally to 71.

While the Tories could expect no fewer than eleven new faces among their group, on these numbers, Adam Tomkins won’t be one of them. UKIP picks up a single seat in the North East, with their Scottish Leader David Coburn missing out on a seat in the Highlands and Islands.

The Greens are polling strongly in the Lothians, as you would expect, easily picking up two seats in the region. On TNS’ numbers the Greens could also expect two seats in the Highlands and Mid Scotland and Fife. Though instinctively unlikely in reality, strong numbers in Mid Scotland and Fife have featured very frequently in the polls in the run up to this election – I’m starting to think there might be something in it.

There are some close contests. On the basis of these numbers, Labour’s best chances of retaining seats (other than Dumfriesshire) are Glasgow Provan, Rutherglen, and East Lothian. The Tories only take Perthshire South by a whisker, while losing Ayr and Galloway by even smaller margins. The Lib Dems, only scrape through in each of the three seats they’re forecast to win.

Perhaps the most interesting figures are in the SNP’s vote shares, which I’ll go into in some more detail next time.

What if the Scottish Parliament election is just a repeat of May 2015?

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The 2015 general election produced a considerable spike in turnout in Scottish constituencies. Following the election, I produced a projection that adjusted the election result for the turnout spike, in order to provide a better picture of the political situation based upon “normal” turnouts. Unsurprisingly, on the basis of exit polling, the spike in turnout was overwhelmingly attributable to the SNP. Perhaps a little surprising was that the spike in turnout actually had relatively little effect on the results in most constituencies. Only Paisley and Renfrewshire South and East Renfrewshire would have been saved for Scottish Labour; Edinburgh West, Caithness, Sutherland, & Easter Ross, and Ross, Skye, & Lochaber being saved for the Liberal Democrats; and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk gained by the Tories.

Just for fun (yes, this is what constitutes fun in my sad world) I’ve projected those results onto the Scottish Parliament, and below are the results. However, it’s worth noting how I arrived at this projection, beyond simply adjusting for turnout.

Other assumptions

Having adjusted the turnout to something approaching a “normal” General Election level (which, it is worth noting, is still higher than a typical Scottish Parliament turnout level), and applied it to the constituency section of my model, it then became necessary to apply these results to the regional list votes, which is obviously more difficult. As noted previously, parties typically suffer a degree of “regional leakage”, with constituency support going elsewhere in the regional lists. The leakage proportion from 2011 was used (which has Scottish Labour dropping off quite considerably, with the SNP remaining fairly solid). This produces a significant “other” vote. This “other” vote was then allocated to the smaller parties in proportion with the figures in the recent Survation polling.

It is worth reiterating that this is not a projection, it is an extrapolation. Its primary purpose is not to forecast May’s election, as we all know how Westminster and Holyrood elections can produce wildly different results even when they are relatively close to one another. Rather, this extrapolation provides a yardstick against which the coming election can be measured, as well as some indication of where parties ought to be focusing their efforts, in light of the fairly significant political reset that has taken place.

The result

2015 as 2016The extrapolation sees another SNP near clean-sweep. Labour retains four constituencies: Coatbridge and Chryston; Cowdenbeath; Dumfriesshire; and Renfrewshire South. The Lib Dems retain their present two seats, and retake Ross, Skye, and Lochaber. The Tories retain their present three seats and gain Eastwood. In addition to those seats that change hands, the model produces a number of close contests: Edinburgh Central, Southern, Pentlands, and Western; Glasgow Provan; Dunfermline; Kirkcaldy; Aberdeen Central; Aberdeenshire West; East Lothian; and Dumbarton. If anyone is expecting some surprise results in May, they’ll likely come in one of those seats.

Overall, the result is broadly in line with current projections. With a majority of 7, the SNP are down one seat on their 2011 result. Labour’s total of 29 seats is at the upper-end of expectations, with the Tories gaining three seats in the more traditionally Conservative regions of the North East, South, and Mid Scotland and Fife. Figures from the Lib Dems are distorted somewhat by the fact that 2010 saw incumbents in some seats faring relatively well against the SNP tide. Jo Swinson’s vote in East Dunbartonshire translates to a Lib Dem seat in the West of Scotland list, while Charles Kennedy’s vote in Ross, Skye, and Lochaber would probably be a gonner absent the man himself. 

One striking feature of this extrapolation is how in line it is with current polling. While this might attest to the veracity of the polling, it may well also be that, as appeared to happen in polls in the run up to 2011, respondents are telling polling companies how they voted last time, as opposed to how they’re going to vote in May. In 2011, the polls only began to move to the SNP during the short campaign. It may well be that there’s still some movement to be seen in the polls after all.

Projection: SNP majority of 9, Tories second on seats

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March 17 Survation Scottish ParliamentSNP: 69 (-)
Conservative: 24 (+9)
Labour: 19 (-18)
Lib Dem: 6 (+1)
Green: 7 (+5)
UKIP: 4 (+4)

Survation 17 March 2016

Apologies for the delay in crunching the numbers on this – I was busy being awarded my PhD.

Last week’s Survation poll makes for depressing reading for Scottish Labour. Despite leading the Tories in both constituency and regional headline numbers, Labour is forecast to finish behind the Conservatives in seats.

On Survation’s figures, the SNP look set to win 65 out of 73 constituency seats. Labour is completely wiped out in the constituencies, while the Tories gain Dumfriesshire and Eastwood from Labour, and Edinburgh Pentlands from the SNP. While the Lib Dems lose Liam MacArthur in Orkney – perhaps surprisingly, they gain Midlothian South, Tweeddale, and Lauderdale from the SNP.

The Highlands and Islands produces the most astonishing result, with the Conservatives going from two to four seats, with UKIP picking up two regional seats. The Conservatives also poll strongly in the South of Scotland and West of Scotland, and gain an extra seat in North East Scotland and Central Scotland.

The Greens gain a seat in Lothians, West of Scotland, and North East Scotland; and two in Mis Scotland and Fife. UKIP are the other big gainers, winning four seats.

High profile casualties include Labour’s Ken Macintosh and Sarah Boyack, and the SNP’s Christine Grahame and Paul Wheelhouse.

The most marginal constituencies are primarily located in Edinburgh, with Central, Southern, Pentlands, and Edinburgh North and Leith all looking competitive. Midlothian South, Tweedale and Lauderdale, Eastwood, and Orkney are all close contests too.

While the regional subsets in the polling are too small to be individually significant, some consistent patterns are beginning to emerge. Polls consistently show UKIP gaining seats, with the Highlands and Islands looking particularly promising. Glasgow also looks like a potential source of a UKIP seat. While polls also consistently show increase in support for the Greens, pinning that support down to particular regions is proving a little more tricky.

Tory strength is heavily concentrated in the South of Scotland in most polls, with modest growth in the Lothians and West of Scotland; while generally showing more slight gains across the board. Labour’s collapse is no surprise, though they appear to be competitive in Edinburgh, with frequent flashes of support in South of Scotland. Nonetheless, the regions most likely to produce more than three Labour MSPs remain Glasgow, Central, and West.

Furthermore, as discussed here previously, the SNP appears unlikely to make significant gains on their 2011 majority. Nonetheless, given that SNP representatives aren’t exactly known for their dissentiousness, when it comes to majorities size really doesn’t matter.

In the fullness of time I hope to collate a “poll of polls” in the hope of putting together more reasonable sample sizes in the individual regions.

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